Worked example: changing support docs
The default prompt-only path sends 100,000 requests with 700 base input tokens, 2,500 stuffed context tokens, and 700 output tokens. Monthly prompt cost is 320M input tokens x $0.75/1M plus 70M output tokens x $4.50/1M = $555.00.
The RAG path replaces stuffed context with 900 retrieved context tokens. Monthly RAG API cost is 160M input tokens x $0.75/1M plus 70M output tokens x $4.50/1M = $435.00. Embedding 500 documents x 800 tokens is 400,000 tokens, or 0.4M x $0.02 = $0.0080.
The vector store is 0.8 GB, so it stays below the first 1 GB storage threshold used by this OpenAI retrieval default. RAG first month is 30 x $125 setup + $435.00 API + $0.008 embedding + $0.00 storage = $4,185.01.
Fine-tuning would use 950 input tokens per request and 700 output tokens per request, so monthly inference is 95M x $0.75/1M + 70M x $4.50/1M = $386.25. First month would be 50 x $125 setup + $3.00 training + $386.25 = $6,639.25, but the default access input blocks it for new-user planning.
RAG saves $555.00 - $435.00 = $120.00 per month versus stuffed prompt context. Extra RAG setup versus prompt setup is (30 - 8) x $125 + $0.008 = $2,750.01, so payback is $2,750.01 / $120.00 = 22.9 months.
How the recommendation score works
Prompt engineering gets credit for low knowledge need, low freshness need, small scope, and fewer examples. RAG gets credit for document dependence, freshness, citations, and source-grounded answers. Fine-tuning gets credit for many examples and high format or style needs, but it is blocked unless fine-tuning access is entered as available.
Why RAG and fine-tuning solve different problems
RAG changes what context the model can read at request time. Fine-tuning changes model behavior from examples. If the problem is missing or changing knowledge, prefer retrieval. If the problem is repeated behavior, format, tone, or classification and access exists, model fine-tuning can be worth testing.
What this estimate excludes
The estimate excludes reranking, vector database read and write operations, batch discounts, cached inputs, training-data labeling, eval operations, latency cost, staff review, and compliance review. Add those lines before approving a production architecture.
What to do next
Build a small eval set, run the same questions through the prompt-only, RAG, and available fine-tune path, compare correctness and citation quality, then update the costs with real usage and vendor quotes.